With an announced growth target of around 5% for 2024, China is expected to continue serving as a main engine for global growth. Meanwhile, China’s commitment to innovation and high-quality development is also attracting global attention. What can we expect from the future of China's economy? Jin Keyu, Professor of Economics at the LSE, shared her insights with us.
Jin Keyu, Professor of Economics at London School of Economics and Political Science
Jin Keyu: China continues to play an extremely important role in the global supply chain, not only in traditional sectors but also in new sectors, including renewable solar panels, AI, and so forth. China’s view is that it is all part of a global supply chain. Therefore, China will bring other countries along as well and actively invest, especially in Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asian economies, as we have already seen. In this sense, China is very global. China needs to stay open for business and create an even more friendly environment for foreign investors and foreign companies, and it needs to send the signal that China is extremely open and will preserve that openness.
Over time, global capital is politically neutral, right? Ultimately, it seeks high returns, high growth, and diversification. If China's economy can maintain a trajectory of sustained growth, I believe it will attract more and more global capital back.
I think innovation is certainly very important for China. At a very early stage, China was able to invest in this new productive force, which is also very important. We have seen the results and successes, such as photovoltaic electric cars and so forth. We are really way ahead of European countries and the US, but I think this is still a long-term investment. We are prepared for the future, but being prepared for the future does not mean that for the short-term economic situation we cannot give more stimulus and support. I think we need both.
I believe all these startups are part of a global chain. I also said that China is bringing many other countries together in developing new industries. Although China may have been a few steps ahead, the development in these fields has attracted the attention of the whole world, whether in terms of investment, infrastructure, and so forth, raising awareness and then increasing competitiveness. What we see in economics is that all industrial policies, as long as they ultimately increase competitiveness, are very good. China is a step ahead, but we also see that China is now making a lot of investments in Europe, especially in startups. Europe and China are working together to produce electric car batteries and so on. I think China should continue, whether in Europe, Africa, or Southeast Asia, to bring them into our industry.
Despite uncertainties, the solid foundation and steady growth of China's economy continue to attract global investors. How will the future performance of China's economy impact the world? Let's hear from Busi Mabuza, Co-Chair of AMNC 2024.
Busi Mabuza, Co-Chair of AMNC 2024 and Chairperson of the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa
Busi Mabuza: Uncertainties seem to me cyclical, not structural. In terms of the structural soundness of the Chinese economy, I have no doubt that it is structurally sound, well planned, and the policy environment is very attractive. You are seeing investors and business people wanting to move into the Chinese market. A very healthy part of the equation is that Chinese business people are looking to diversify their own portfolios and invest in other geographies. So the uncertainty that we're seeing is honestly a blip that is going to move.
Let me remind you, the size of the Chinese economy is 126 trillion RMB. That is huge, that's a huge size of the economy. If an economy of that size can grow at 4% or 5%, there is a lot of value added to the global economy in one year. We, of course, then look and say, it's no longer 6%, it's no longer 7%, and we therefore think that is uncertainty. From my perspective, having come from an economy that would do anything to get 4% growth, I think this economy is poised for absolute greatness. I hope and pray that the African economies, where we now have a large percentage of young people, will start catching up with these growth rates. I am looking forward to us integrating the continent through the African Continental Free Trade Area so that we can start catalyzing the kind of growth rates we've seen in China.
This is a beautiful, very diverse country. Each time I visit a different city, there are different flavors and different things to see. I think the world will be enriched by exposure to the culture of China. I think opening up the economy gives opportunities for young people. As far as I know, there are currently 16 large South African companies operating in the Chinese market. So South African companies have been here for a while, but more are also going to come because of the size of this economy. If any business can make it in this economy, then they are set for life.
On the road to high quality development, what else can China pay attention to? Chen Liming, Greater China Chairman of the World Economic Forum, gave some suggestions.
Chen Liming, Greater China Chairman of World Economic Forum
Chen Liming: China is the world's second-largest economy.And in differentareas,China has already become the largest market.There is still a lot of potential to explore.
The 1.4 billion population is the strongest support for our future economic development.Although our demographic structure is changing,despite such circumstances,no matter how it changes,the 1.4 billion population is a huge consumer market.
In addition, our development is not so balanced.For instance, between the north and the south,between the west and the east,and between urban and rural areas. Where there is a development disparity, there are alwaysopportunities.So from this perspective,I think there is still great room for development.
In the field of science and technology,we've made impressive progress.In the number of patents,and the number of published papers,we rank first in the world.Of course, we must recognize thatwe still need to improve our quality.At the same time, a lot of high-tech companies have established themselves in China.It can be said thatChina is an important force globally.
In the past, when it came to scientific and technological development,it was often said that science came before technology.That's not true.Sometimes it was the technology that came first,making scientific discoveries possibleand bringing development in this field.But in modern times,many scientific discoveriesmust be transformed into technological applications.For example, the quantum theory starts from a theory,to gradually be applied to technological development.So, the investment in the basic fieldwill be converted into productive forces in the future.
策划:于晓娜
监制:施诗
制作:李群 蔡于恬
特约摄像:王杨
新媒体统筹:丁青云 曾婷芳 赖禧 黄达迅
海外运营监制: 黄燕淑
海外运营内容统筹: 黄子豪
海外运营编辑:庄欢 吴婉婕 龙李华 张伟韬
出品:南方财经全媒体集团
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